Turning Point Brands Inc
TPB Stock Forecast & Price Prediction
A data-driven outlook for TPB built from live market pricing, discounted cash flow fair value, valuation multiples and ZCoreAI's Z-Score mean-reversion model. No opinions — only what the numbers currently imply.
TPB Price Outlook
- PV of projected FCF
- $240.68M
- PV of terminal value
- $615.96M
- Equity value
- $856.64M
- Growth assumption
- 23%
TPB Historical Price Context
Two years of weekly closes for TPB, with 52-week extremes and realized performance.
- 52-week high
- $146.90
- 52-week low
- $65.80
- 1-year performance
- -30.5%
- 2-year performance
- +62.5%
TPB is trading 3% of the way up its 52-week range.
TPB Valuation & Fundamentals
The multiples and growth rates that drive the TPB forecast model.
- Market cap
- $1.37B
- P/E (TTM)
- 30.66
- Forward P/E
- 30.57
- EPS (TTM)
- $2.33
- Revenue growth
- +22.6%
- EPS growth
- -77.4%
- Net margin
- +8.8%
- Discount rate
- 9%
TPB Technical & Smart Money Context
Live Z-Score readings measure how far TPB has stretched from its statistical regression mean on each timeframe. Extreme readings historically precede mean reversion.
How the TPB Forecast Is Built
The TPB price prediction combines three independent layers. First, a two-stage discounted cash flow model projects free cash flow ten years forward at 23% growth, applies a 2.5% perpetual terminal growth rate, and discounts every cash flow back to today at 9%. Second, current valuation multiples are compared against the growth and margin profile the company is actually delivering. Third, a Z-Score regression model measures how far price has stretched from its statistical mean on the 1H, 4H and daily timeframes.
Fair value is a valuation anchor, not a timing tool. A stock can stay above or below model fair value for long stretches, which is why the Z-Score layer exists — it identifies when TPB is statistically stretched enough that mean reversion becomes probable. Nothing on this page is investment advice.
TPB Stock Forecast FAQ
What is the TPB stock forecast?
ZCoreAI derives the TPB forecast from a DCF fair value of $42.73, current valuation multiples, and live Z-Score mean-reversion statistics. It is a model output based on today's data, not a guarantee of future prices.
How is the TPB price prediction calculated?
Free cash flow is projected ten years forward, a Gordon-growth terminal value is capitalized, and both are discounted to present value. Net cash and debt are added to reach equity value, which is divided by shares outstanding to get a per-share number that is compared to the live TPB price.
Is TPB overvalued or undervalued right now?
On current inputs the model puts TPB above fair value by 37.3%. Model inputs change as fundamentals update.
What does the TPB Z-Score mean?
The Z-Score measures standard deviations from a regression mean. Below -3 signals an unusually stretched downside move, above +3 signals a stretched upside move, and readings in between are statistically neutral.
Can I trade TPB signals live?
Yes. Open TPB in the ZCoreAI terminal to see Smart Money structure, signal markers and fair-value overlays on the live chart, or review every recent alert on the signals page.
Full DCF intrinsic value breakdown for TPB.
Payout history, yield and dividend growth for TPB.
Every recent Z-Score buy and sell alert across the market.
Data refreshed from live ZCoreAI market endpoints. Informational only — not investment advice.