Motorcar Parts of America Inc
MPAA Stock Forecast & Price Prediction
A data-driven outlook for MPAA built from live market pricing, discounted cash flow fair value, valuation multiples and ZCoreAI's Z-Score mean-reversion model. No opinions — only what the numbers currently imply.
MPAA Price Outlook
- PV of projected FCF
- $104.02M
- PV of terminal value
- $150.70M
- Equity value
- $254.72M
- Growth assumption
- 7%
MPAA Historical Price Context
Two years of weekly closes for MPAA, with 52-week extremes and realized performance.
- 52-week high
- $18.12
- 52-week low
- $9.29
- 1-year performance
- -35.9%
- 2-year performance
- +77.0%
MPAA is trading 15% of the way up its 52-week range.
MPAA Valuation & Fundamentals
The multiples and growth rates that drive the MPAA forecast model.
- Market cap
- $201.45M
- P/E (TTM)
- —
- Forward P/E
- 7.70
- EPS (TTM)
- $-0.23
- Revenue growth
- -10.8%
- EPS growth
- —
- Net margin
- -0.5%
- Discount rate
- 9%
MPAA Technical & Smart Money Context
Live Z-Score readings measure how far MPAA has stretched from its statistical regression mean on each timeframe. Extreme readings historically precede mean reversion.
How the MPAA Forecast Is Built
The MPAA price prediction combines three independent layers. First, a two-stage discounted cash flow model projects free cash flow ten years forward at 7% growth, applies a 2.5% perpetual terminal growth rate, and discounts every cash flow back to today at 9%. Second, current valuation multiples are compared against the growth and margin profile the company is actually delivering. Third, a Z-Score regression model measures how far price has stretched from its statistical mean on the 1H, 4H and daily timeframes.
Fair value is a valuation anchor, not a timing tool. A stock can stay above or below model fair value for long stretches, which is why the Z-Score layer exists — it identifies when MPAA is statistically stretched enough that mean reversion becomes probable. Nothing on this page is investment advice.
MPAA Stock Forecast FAQ
What is the MPAA stock forecast?
ZCoreAI derives the MPAA forecast from a DCF fair value of $13.45, current valuation multiples, and live Z-Score mean-reversion statistics. It is a model output based on today's data, not a guarantee of future prices.
How is the MPAA price prediction calculated?
Free cash flow is projected ten years forward, a Gordon-growth terminal value is capitalized, and both are discounted to present value. Net cash and debt are added to reach equity value, which is divided by shares outstanding to get a per-share number that is compared to the live MPAA price.
Is MPAA overvalued or undervalued right now?
On current inputs the model puts MPAA below fair value by 26.4%. Model inputs change as fundamentals update.
What does the MPAA Z-Score mean?
The Z-Score measures standard deviations from a regression mean. Below -3 signals an unusually stretched downside move, above +3 signals a stretched upside move, and readings in between are statistically neutral.
Can I trade MPAA signals live?
Yes. Open MPAA in the ZCoreAI terminal to see Smart Money structure, signal markers and fair-value overlays on the live chart, or review every recent alert on the signals page.
Full DCF intrinsic value breakdown for MPAA.
Payout history, yield and dividend growth for MPAA.
Every recent Z-Score buy and sell alert across the market.
Data refreshed from live ZCoreAI market endpoints. Informational only — not investment advice.